UNUSUAL TROOP MOVEMENTS IN ARAB COUNTRIES AS ISRAEL PREPARES ALL-OUT ATTACK ON PALESTINIANS
by DEBKAfile, 29 March 2002
"Israels extended military offensive against Palestinian leader Yasser Arafats Ramallah stronghold, launched Friday morning, March 29, quickly took on a wider regional context. By afternoon, DEBKAfiles military sources began to pick up signs of unusual military movements in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
They may reflect the growing nervousness among Arab leaders over Israels
announced partial call-up of reservists and preparations for a full mobilization,
despite the Passover holiday. The first announcement of 20,000 reservists
to be called up was stepped up later to 30,000. Arab governments were already
put on edge by the upheavals attendant on US preparations for its campaign
against Iraq.
At the same, Arab political and military chiefs refuse to tolerate any Israeli
move that might physically harm Arafat or isolate him, a tactic they regard
as tantamount to taking the Palestinian leader prisoner or placing him under
house arrest.
Anticipating this sensitivity, Israel conveyed its assurance to Washington
in good time for relay to concerned Arab governments that the IDF call-up
was solely aimed against Arafat and his terrorist apparatus and had no wider
goals. In a further series of messages conveyed through Washington, Israeli
provided additional clarification of its Ramallah operation.
The military operation was vital, Israel explained, not only to isolate Arafat
and cut off his terror machine, but to uncover the vast stores of secret weapons
he has amassed in violation of the Oslo Framework Accords he signed with Israel
in 1993. Israel intelligence had learned that Arafat hid these forbidden depots
beneath Palestinian Administration buildings in the government compound in
Ramallah. As Israeli tanks and bulldozers advanced through the compound during
the day, huge tunnels came to light containing an array of weaponry, including
anti-tank and anti-air missiles apparently only one section of a many-branched
storage system.
Under the headquarters of Col. Tawfiq Tirawis Palestinian General Security
Service, Israeli elite units turned up a large bunker in which were stacked
hundreds of M-72 LAWS (Light Anti-Tank Weapons). A similarly packed store
was concealed under the Palestinian Authority prison, also captured by Israel
forces.
Bunkers under Arafats offices were found to contain electronic surveillance
devices for tracking Israeli military movements, as well as detailed diagrams
of the bases and movements of senior Israeli officers stationed in the Ramallah
region, with notes on the security details guarding them and their routines.
Also found were aerial maps of at least one Israel air base.
Israels military and intelligence command ordered military bulldozers
to systematically break through suspect buildings in the compound for two
purposes: To uncover the illicit weapons stores and to leave Arafat isolated
in his undamaged office and living quarters amid the ruins of his compound.
Israels assurance meant to calm, had the opposite effect. Sharons
declaration that the military operation could last weeks did not help soothe
edgy Arab nerves either.
Moderate Arab leaders are additionally concerned lest Saddam Hussein or the
Lebanese Hizballah opt for opening a second front against Israel to ease the
pressure on Arafat. The Iraqi ruler is capable of shooting missiles or suicide
aircraft over Israels main cities, while the Hizballahs newly-supplied
rockets can cover most of northern Israel up to a point south of Haifa
and area with a population of nearly a million.
If either attack came to be, Israeli would strike back against Iraq and Hizballah
bases in the Lebanese Beqaa Valley. Faced with this potential scenario
not to speak of the complications of an American attack against Baghdad -
Arab leaders do not want to be caught unprepared militarily. Hence the military
movements.
The nature of the American response to these developments is anyones
guess. Would Washington lend Israels military moves full or partial
support? How would it react to an Iraqi or Hizballah attack on Israel and
how far would the Americans go to integrate this unfolding Middle East chapter
into the broad US global war on terrorism?
DEBKAfile s military and political experts say it is too soon to offer
definitive answers to these questions. The highest authorities in the US,
Israel and Arab governments may be called upon to make such decisions at very
short notice - within days or hours. In view of these uncertainties, Israels
action against Arafat and the Palestinian Authority already has an impact
on world financial and oil markets. The dollar is strengthening and oil prices,
which have been rising slowly and steadily for the past several weeks are
continuing to climb."