NEW BUSH STRATEGY ON ARAFAT AND POSSIBLE EARLY ATTACK ON IRAQ
by DEBKAfile 8 April 2002
"The Bush administration has always kept Yasser Arafat in play as a potential negotiating partner. He has been accused of not doing enough to curb terror, but never of the practice of terror himself. In an attempt to play by American rules, Israel produced the equivalent of 'smoking gun' documentary evidence linking Arafats hands to the suicide bombers only to be told from Washington to back off.
Sharon then read the documents out one by one to the Knesset in his political
address Monday, April 8. They were gathered from Yasser Arafats headquarters
in Ramallah in the course of Israels major military operation, launched
on March 29, to purge the blight at source. Four times, as this campaign reached
a crucial point, President George W. Bush and his top advisers called on Israel
to withdraw from Palestinian cities without delay. This was clearly translated
by the presidents national security adviser Condaleezza Rice Sunday,
April 7, as meaning now!
Only then did the penny drop in Jerusalem. She added '
the end of the
operation cant be helter skelter and chaotic'. But this did not sweeten
the pill.
Successful beyond the most optimistic expectations in its drive to clean out
Palestinian terrorist strongholds, the military needs more time to wind it
up in the orderly manner. Time is an essential element in surgical house-to-house
tactics; massive aerial bludgeoning would be quicker, but also indiscriminate.
Bush issued his first call for an Israel withdrawal from Palestinian territory
in his Rose Garden speech on April 4. The Sharon government understood it
to mean an extra week or more before secretary of State Colin Powell landed
in Israel on his ceasefire mission. He therefore kept going. Sunday, April
7, when White House pressure built up, the prime ministers office in
Jerusalem indicated that, as a gesture to the secretary, the IDF would withdraw
from certain Palestinian areas where terrorist centers had been broken up.
However, the main thrust of the operation would not be interrupted.
The tone of the diplomatic hair-splitting over timelines may be friendly,
but, according to DEBKAfile s political circles, it does not detract
from the fact that the Sharon-Bush yearlong honeymoon is abruptly coming to
a close. If he fails to toe the new Bush line, the prime minister may find
himself at the receiving end of the diplomatic version of Israels military
isolation of Yasser Arafat in Ramallah.
The US presidents switch in strategy caught many of Washingtons
decision-makers and Sharon himself unawares. Bushs inner circle of advisers
decided on the shift nearly three weeks ago, when it became clear that Vice
President Richard Cheneys tour to drum up European and Arab support
for the US offensive of Iraq had fallen flat.
Just about the time he rounded off his tour in Jerusalem on March 19 and 20,
a decision was taken by the presidents inner circle, according to DEBKAfile
s Washington sources, to abandon the vice presidents confrontational
tactics and try a more accommodationist approach, such as that advocated by
secretary of state Colin Powell.
The presidents 'inner circle' includes not only the White House team,
but also advisers close to him outside Washington.
In West Europe and Arab capitals, Cheney followed the earlier presidential
precept that backers-out from Americas war on terror, like France or
Saudi Arabia, will find themselves counted out and may even find their interests
jeopardized. The result was that he raised no support for the anti-Saddam
offensive anywhere but Jerusalem. Even a close ally like Turkey held back.
Cheneys 48-hour stay in Israel coincided with one of the bloodiest Palestinian
suicide cycles, launched after Israel accepted a unilateral ceasefire to give
US broker Anthony Zinni a chance. When Arafat refused to restrain the terrorists
and accept the ceasefire, the vice president declined to meet him till he
did. The next thing to happen was that Arab and Muslim leaders who gathered
first at the Arab League summit in Beirut in late March and then at
the Islamic summit in Kuala Lumpur in early April refused to designate
Arafats suicide bombers and killers terrorists even though the
campaign specifically targeted civilians to advance political and strategic
objectives.
This refusal was part and parcel of the Muslim-Arab blocs mixed stance
on the September 11 terrorist attacks on America. The specific act was condemned,
but not Islamic terror per se. The bloc, led by Egypt, accordingly withheld
its support from the US global war on terrorism, pending a precise definition
of terrorism. In the absence of an agreed definition, Palestinian suicides
could not be judged terrorists. This view has found broad support in the European
Union, a front that Cheney was unable to crack.
The Bush government was therefore confronted with a major obstacle to going
ahead with its offensive against Iraq and a dilemma. There was no question
that the 19 Saudi and Egyptian suicide hijackers who blew themselves up at
the World Trade Center and the Pentagon killing thousands of Americans were
terrorists. Yet when Washington judged as terrorists the Palestinian suicides
who blew up a Passover ceremony and killed 27 elderly Israelis and tourists,
the Europeans and the Islamic-Arab bloc drew away from their support for Americas
war on terror and its campaign against Iraq.
Still, in his Rose Garden speech launching the new Powell mission, the US
president stood up and declared that those suicides should not be glorified;
they were not martyrs but murderers. But even so, he stepped back from determining
that the man who sent them, Yasser Arafat, was a terrorist himself. At most,
Bush and Rice have called his performance disappointing and reverted to the
same old tune of urging him to do more to fight terror.
According to DEBKAfiles political analysts, Powell will be making a
bid for the cooperation European and Arab rulers denied Cheney. Since both
blocks insist on regarding Arafat as the only legitimate representative of
the Palestinian people, Washington will have to meet their pre-conditions
and go back to engaging him.
Before even setting out for Rabat - and meetings with King Muhammad VI and
Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah, at the start of his mission - Powell showed initial
willingness to meet this demand. A previous unambiguous statement that the
secretary would not be calling on the Palestinian leader was replaced Sunday,
April 7, by word that, unlike the vice president, he would be willing to see
Arafat in the 'right circumstances'.
The circumstance Powell was referring to was evidently a halt in the suicide
bombings. By those words he also acknowledged implicitly that Arafat was in
fact responsible for their dispatch.
In any case, no human bombs have reached Israeli civilians for the past nine
days though not because of any goodwill on Arafats part, but
owing to the extensive Israeli military operation launched against one terrorist
stronghold after another as of March 29. As it turns out, the Palestinian
leader who orchestrated the suicide campaign may reap the benefit of the attainments
of his enemy, the IDF, in choking the terror off at source.
The Israeli prime minister, on the other hand, is bracing himself for the
pressure to come from Washington to relieve Arafats isolation. Convinced
that the military operations abortion in mid-course would be a gross
betrayal of his responsibilities, Sharon is bolstering his unity government
to broaden national support for his decision to go ahead regardless and finish
the job. The National Religious Party, in a lightning reshuffle, has named
Res. Brig. Effi Eitam, former commander of Israeli forces in S. Lebanon, as
party chairman and its candidate for a seat on the inner defense cabinet.
David Levy, Gesher and foreign minister in the Labour-led Barak government,
has been invited to join the government. The National Union, led by the ultra-hawkish
Avigdor Lieberman, is on its way to back to office. Sharon has even roped
in two former prime ministers and rivals, Likuds Binyamin Netanyahu
and Labors Ehud Barak, as national information campaigners.
Going on the offensive against the Palestinian suicide bombers and their commanders
boosted his popularity instantaneously by 20 percentage points, steeling him
for the potential confrontation with Washington.
In advance of the Powell mission to Europe and the Middle East, Bush and British
premier Tony Blair struck a deal at their weekend conference in the presidential
ranch in Crawford, Texas. The UK will back the US-led offensive against Iraq,
while Bush will meet the EU-Arab block halfway on the Palestinian question.
But, because of the rapid deterioration on the Israel-Palestinian warfront
and the threat of an eruption on the Lebanese-Israeli frontier, Washington
wants to move fast. Part of Powells mission will be to arrest the deterioration
by cutting the Palestinians and the incendiary Hizballah out of the overall
picture, and, if necessary, marginalize Sharon too. The assault on Iraq will
be brought forward before the other regional flames get out of control.
Powell has been sent to accomplish this intricate exercise. According to DEBKAfiles
political sources, Sharon does not rate his chances of success much higher
than those of Cheney. Armored in broad national support, the prime minister
will therefore wait for the latest Bush strategy to play itself out. What
appears to be inevitable at this moment is an early date for the US assault
on Iraq." [Emphasis added]