MILITANT HIZBULLAH LEADER SUDDENLY OFFERS TO FREE CAPTURED ISRAELI TANNENBOIM IF U.S. AND ISRAEL HALT CURRENT OFFENSIVE AND FREE ARAFAT:
Threatens to derail efforts to establish Palestinian State
BY DEBKAfile 11 April 2002
"The Lebanese Hizballahs Hassan Nasrallah counted
on the shock effect of his surprise offer on April 11 - to negotiate the return
of the Israeli Elhanan Tannenboim abducted in October 2000 - to manipulate
a number of parties round to dealing with him directly.
Most immediately, his offer was a last-minute try to deny Israel forces a
hard-won victory in the epic Jenin battle and rescue the 100-150 hard-core
Palestinian Jihad Islami terrorists still battling them from the last corner
of the Jenin camp.
The Nasrallah plan is to send them to Lebanon. If he If he can achieve this goal, Nasrallah will also have cracked open the door for Arafat to escape his virtual imprisonment in Ramallah and may even force Washington into a dialogue with the extremist group it has officially designated a terrorist organization.
First an international mediation board would be established to handle the
kidnapped Israelis handover to Israel and guarantee the safety and release
of the besieged Palestinians.
Israel has yet to respond to the offer. The Hizballahs secretary general
has a well-earned reputation as a prize demagogue, manipulator and psychological
blackmailer. Israel will certainly demand proofs that Tannenboim is alive
and in Hizballahs hands. A UN or Red Cross mediator will have to see
him in the flesh in the next 12 hours or at the least a photo or video
produced showing him holding up a Lebanese newspaper dated April 11.
If Nasrallah can arrange this, he will have won round one of his master plan:
robbing Israel of victory in the toughest battle of its counter-terror offensive,
a confrontation whose importance for the Palestinians and radical Muslim world
equals that of the crucial battle for Kandahar in Afghanistan.
Although US Marines and ground forces have massed in Kandahar, seven months
after landing the country, they still control only the citys international
airport. These forces have refrained from entering the town for fear of heavy
US casualties. But the Israeli army is paying the price, and a heavy one,
for bearding the terrorists in their strongholds. Its soldiers are braving
the deathtrap alleyways of the Nablus and Jenin casbahs and refugee camps,
engaging in close combat with Muslim extremists and advancing through areas
bristling with thousands of explosive devices and booby-traps.
Nasrallah, Arafat, Osama bin Laden and every other Muslim leader know that
an Israeli victory in Jenin would shatter the myth of the invincible warrior
for Islam. The Hizballah has stepped in to avert militant Islams first
real major defeat in the global war against terrorism.
For the Israeli soldier, this battle has to be won, because it is being fought
against an enemy that threatens his home, family and country. Elite fighters
and commanders have therefore flocked to the flag and are being sacrificed.
The United States understands this important point, and the IDFs imperative
need to fight on in the Jenin camp and Nablus casbah all the way to victory.
In some ways, the fall of Jenin will hasten the fall of Kandahar.
Nasrallahs battle plan has a second part: After two weeks of almost
daily cross-border rocket and mortar attacks into northern Israel, he means
to head off an Israeli air or ground counter-offensive against his own Hizballah
and Syrian forces in Lebanon.
His gambit is also designed to force Israel to lift its siege of Arafat.
By linking the Palestinian issue with Hizballahs fight against Israel,
Nasrallah is attempting the grab the leading role of the al-Aqsa campaign
launched by Arafat. He is also forcing the United States to focus its attention
on himself at the very moment that US secretary of state Colin Powell arrives
for ceasefire talks with Israeli and Palestinian leaders Friday and Saturday,
April 11 and 12. Powell will find that Nasrallah is part of the problem and
therefore will have to be engaged too if not directly, then through
the good offices of European diplomats who always stand ready for this role.
Once that happens, the Hizballah leader can also claim a diplomatic victory,
without making the slightest effort to prove that Tannenboim is alive or that
his group has charge of him. It will be enough if Israel says it is willing
to negotiate his release. An answer one way or another is due from Jerusalem
very soon. Nasrallah will then demand as a pre-condition a truce in Jenin.
The focus of US, Israeli and Palestinian exchanges will at that point swing
round to the offer Hizballah has placed on the table and ways to hold off
an Israeli operation in Lebanon and away from the bilateral Palestinian-Israeli
issue of withdrawal versus the cessation of terror.
And that will not be all. Nasrallah made his move - not only on his own behalf,
but as part of the conjoined military collaboration between two members of
the US presidents axis of evil: Iran and Iraq. US vice president
Dick Cheney telephoned Syrian president Bashar Assad early this week in a
bid to persuade him make the Hizballah desist from its daily attacks against
Israeli forces and towns. But several hours earlier, DEBKAfile s military
sources report, Assad received Iraqi vice president Taha Yassin Ramadan at
his Damascus palace to discuss military coordination in the event of a Middle
East war erupting and the invocation the secret military pacts that Syria
and Iraq signed last summer. These pacts provide for Syrian air force units,
if their bases are attacked, to operate out of Iraqi air bases - and vice
versa.
Assads next secret visitor this week was Nasrallah.
He arrived armed with an Iranian mandate to petition the Syrian leader for
permission to up the ante in his assault on Israel, namely to fire heavy 120
mm artillery, various types of Katyusha rockets and eventually short-range
Iranian surface-to-surface missiles, instead of the anti-tank missiles and
mortars fielded till now.
The Hizballah leader also requested permission to shoot missiles from Lebanon
at Israeli targets on the Israeli side of the Golan Heights, which Syria lost
in the 1967 war. Assad, who told Cheney he had no influence over the Hizballah,
granted its leader both requests.
Nasrallah was therefore able to break a long-standing rule. Never before has
territory claimed by Syria come under missile attack from Lebanon. Washington
and Israel can hardly complain if Hizballah attacks the Golan with permission
from Damascus.
What the Hizballah leader has achieved with a single timely stroke is to hijack
the moderate Arab leaders attempts to rescue Arafat and the Palestinians
and seize the initiative on behalf of the extremist Muslim camp - Iran, Iraq,
Syria and the Hizballah. This places extra onus on the moderates to harden
their position the very opposite that Powell wants to achieve. The
Lebanese groups heavy artillery that began firing into the Golan Heights
for the first time Monday, April 8, was a signal to the United States, the
Europeans and Israels left-wing leaders, of the way the Middle East
crisis was heading, as a result of their efforts to salvage the Arafat regime.
Unless Nasrallah is firmly rebuffed, the would-be international ceasefire
brokers will soon find themselves at the wrong address in their efforts to
achieve a Middle East breakthrough.
On the other hand, his proposition offers the first real chance of extracting
a sign that the missing Tannenboim is alive though not because the
Hizballah holds him. As DEBKAfile has reported in the past, Tannenboim is
in the hands of the Shiite terrorist Imad Mughniyeh and probably not in Lebanon
at all. At the same time, if Nasrallah is acting on behalf of Mughniyehs
masters in Tehran, a ray of light may be available at last on the abducted
mans fate."