REGIONAL MID-EAST WAR SAID TO BE 80% PROBABLE
THE WORLDS FIRST AUTHORITATIVE NEWSLETTER OF INTELLIGENCE
NEWSBREAKS ANALYSIS COMMENTARY
April 12, 2002
NEW MIDDLE EAST INTERIM INTERPRETATION:
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF REGIONAL WAR
By Joseph Ehrlich
We now conclude that there is an 80% probability of a regional war.
First, we now confirm as valid our interpretation that part of trilogy of realities attendant to the Saudi peace proposal was a detailed plan to eliminate all those who putatively could undermine it.
Second, this allowed us to immediately see Ariel Sharons push to eliminate all known terrorist cells in the West Bank as part of that original plan. What was an open variable was whether this would be something more than a quick foray, or an extensive one could undermine the Saudi peace plan with affirmative backtracking possible by the Saudis themselves.
Thus, when Sharon refused to withdraw we had to wait to see whether this could possibly be due to Israels true belief that withdrawal would jeopardize its interests, and whether it was genuinely willing to refute the wishes of President Bush. This morning in seeing the press conference with Powell and Sharon, we were able to conclude for ourselves that everything that happened was part and parcel of the orchestration.
The variable was whether President Bush wanted Sharon to push forward, for in doing so he would engage Syria; and predictably Syria has engaged Israel through Lebanon.
Third, this affirmation of our perspective can only mean the following. One of the options available to President Bush was: 1. Sharon would take out all the terrorist cells in the West Bank, 2. Sharon would refute the U.S. call for a withdrawal, whetting the Syrian appetite for an engagement in the north -- in the hope of drawing an Israeli response -- pulling in all the Arab nations and causing an abortion to the Saudi peace plan 3. President Bush would allow Sharon to engage Syria with covert U.S. forces present to assure that President Assad became a casualty of war,
4. President Bush would simultaneously engage Iraq and assure the elimination of arch foe Saddam Hussein before he would attack Israel in connection with Israels engagement of Syria.
The consequence of this alternative plan is that two of the three regimes the U.S. is concerned about would fall. This would shift the balance of power mightily to the U.S. and Israel.
Iran would either fall in line or soon become the next victim. In recently calling in Tony Blair for a visit, the U.S. was to advise him that President Bush decided to pursue the above described course; President Bush without question assessing that there could not be a peace in place with any meaning for Israel or for the U.S. to assure stability in the region, when Syria and Iraq (having regimes loyal to China) would always plot act to undermine critical U.S. interests.
The most important question continues to be: What will China do? If it sees, as we fear it does, that the U.S. has now plotted to take out Assad and Saddam Hussein, it will surely conclude that there needs to be a major terrorist strike, as we have proffered all along, to permanently preclude any possibility of a U.S. - backed peace taking place.
This decision to allow Sharon to push forward encourages China to pursue it. If Powell now meets with Yasser Arafat, it will look like weakness on the part of the U.S. and Israel. The U.S. is waiting for all of Arafats opponents to be eliminated so that
Arafat has no excuse to say in Arabic to stop the bombings.
Arafats true allegiance is with China, or better said, against the U.S. and Israel. He feels, as we have expressed, that continued suicide bombings as seen even this morning in Jerusalem will depress, de-settle and encourage many Israelis to throw in the towel and leave Israel under the economic depression that is sure to continue to reign supreme in Israel under these circumstances and conditions.
If the U.S. prevails in eliminating all the terrorists cells that Arafat targeted, these being the ones which threaten him if he accepts the Saudi peace, and Arafat sees Syria and Iraq crumble, under U.S. dominance and design, Arafat will be a compliant player in the Saudi peace proposal (of course, consistent with his original ratification of same, Arafat tells the terrorist cells he targeted that he is against the Saudi plan, shown by his participation in the suicide bombings).
In the meantime, Arafat who lives on a thin line, is safe and secure, ironically under Israeli protection while all this house cleaning is taking place. Now, in line with his playing ball with his heart (China), Arafat continues to condone the bombings, driving his renewed popularity to 1994 record levels.
The U.S. and Israels best option is to engage Syria and Iraq. However, our fear, and it is a serious fear, is that China will act to offset this offset and the consequences open a Pandoras box. While it looks good on paper to the U.S. strategists, our concern is that controlling dynamics give the advantage to the Arab nations, meaning that something major and unexpected will happen. China is ready to pounce on Taiwan. The U.S. is willing let sacrifice Taiwan if it can get control of Syria and Iraq. However, we doubt that China will let Syria and Iraq slip out of its grasp. If it does, the U.S. regains and controls the Mid-East and China will lose its covert status among the aggressive block of Arab/Islamic nations.
Buckle up. The third phase of our original interpretations is still open and it is more likely than ever to occur. While we still see it taking place in Israel, a major terrorist action in the U.S. is likely to raise questions as to U.S. policies, especially when the blame will connect to U.S. support for Israel. The reality is that Sharon and Israel have been made the fall guys. Anything that now happens against Israel or the U.S. or in Europe will be connected to Sharons refusal to withdraw as President Bush requested.
Sharon in agreeing to play ball with this dynamic in play ill serves Israel and the Jewish people, not only in Israel but also in the rest of the world. To our minds, a joint declared effort to eliminate all terrorists in the West Bank would be totally consistent with President Bushs originally declared and never amended aims in moving troops to the region. If Israel agreed to the Saudi peace proposal at the insistence of the U.S. we think the better course would have been for the U.S. to admit to being behind or fully supporting Israels incursions to eliminate all known terrorists.
However, just as Arafat wanted to maintain clean hands for identifying those in fact eliminated, the U.S. itself wishes to hold itself hostage to Sharons public zeal to pursue terrorists for another week or two.
Conclusion: The following reality presently controls. Arafat doesnt want peace. Hes winning. Israel doesnt want peace because it does not believe any peace will be permanent or true. By giving up substantial lands it will open the gateway for another round of terrorism, perhaps after a convenient lapse of several years. Moreover, if it gives up Jerusalem, it will lose global respect for doing so. Otherwise, despite all it did to accommodate the Oslo peace, Israel will be considered nothing more than an outcast nation. China doesnt want a peace because instability in the region further consolidates its covert presence in the region and further undermines the U.S. and U.S. interests.
Only the U.S. wants peace, because it serves the new world order interests, offsetting Chinas recent successes in the region. The U.S. now believes or is committed to a course where it must undermine all regimes aligned with China (under the banner of supporting terrorism). So while the U.S. allows Arafat to survive, it will wave the banner of 9-11 to have Israel do the dirty work with regard to Syria. The U.S. will move under the pretext of Iraqi support for Syria and the use of putative biotoxic weapons against Israel to complete the unfinished work or George Bush, Sr. This is the only course that serves U.S. interests at this point of time ASSUMING ITS INTELLIGENCE IS SUPREME TO COUNTER WHATEVER CHINA HAS PLANNED. IF CHINA THROWS IN THE TOWEL, IT WILL LOSE ITS NEW STATUS AS A FORTHCOMING MAJOR POWER TO OFFSET THE U.S. FOR THIS VERY REASON WE ARE SURE THAT CHINA IS SUPPORTING SOMETHING MAJOR AND THEREFOR WE ASSESS THE FORTHCOMING PERIOD IN HISTORY AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS.
Joseph Ehrlich, an attorney and noted geopolitical analyst, is president of Sender, Berl & Sons, Inc. and author of Recapturing America, to be published by Dandelion Books.
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