War Rhetoric Heats Up Dramatically in Middle East: Combatants Now "Calmly Discussing" Nuclear War!
by DEBKAfile
16 June 2002
On Wednesday, June 12, out of the blue, the Iraqi foreign ministry issued a far from routine communiqué: It vilified Israels launch of a new spy satellite (Ofek-5 on May 28) as posing a threat to Arab national security as a whole providing additional evidence of Israels hostile and aggressive intentions towards Arab states and exposing its quest to expand its alien presence and spread its hegemony over the region. Arab states were urged to take all necessary measures to face and contain the repercussions of the missile launch.
After running the Iraqi communiqué, Space Daily noted that India and
Turkey are among the potential customers of the Ofek-5 satellite intelligence
data.
The next day, June 13, the foreign ministry in Baghdad was busy again. A note
was sent off to the UN secretary accusing the United States of being on the
point of a nuclear attack on Iraq.Israel was charged merely with possession
of nuclear weapons not the intention to use them, although the Baghdad
message pointed out that Israel had bombed Iraqs nuclear reactor exactly
19 years ago.
The implication is clear: The Israeli space satellite was placed in orbit in
advance of the projected American attack on Iraq. It was there also to service
the Turkish armed forces taking part in that assault, as well as assisting India
in its coming conflict with Pakistan.
Another vital piece in this menacing mosaic appeared first in DEBKAfile and
DEBKA-Net-Weekly as early as September 7, 2001, a report that Israel had been
commissioned by India to set up an electronic fence in Kashmir with six main
electronic early warning stations based on the Israeli-made Green Pine radar
system.
These disclosures portend the two major conflicts expected to be fought this
year being the most extensively electronics-based wars in military history.
Both the US campaign against Iraq and the Indian-Pakistani conflict will unveil
missile and surveillance systems never seen before.
A strong nuclear dimension also appears unavoidable.
On Saturday, June 15, the Washington Post reported Israel had armed three diesel
submarines with newly-designed cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
On May 11, 2001, thirteen months ago, DEBKA-Net-Weekly, Issue No. 12,revealed:
Indias nuclear collaboration plan hinges on the three Israeli 1,925-ton
800-class German-made Dolphin-class submarines, which are armed with Israel-designed
1,500-km range Popeye Turbo cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
This flotilla is sought as a second strike capability for the Indian air force
and naval units present in the Arabian Sea opposite Pakistan.Israel maintains
one or sometimes two of those submarines permanently in Persian Gulf waters
as a sea-launched deterrent force its second-tier, first strike capability,
against Iran and Iraq.
This month, on June 7, 2002, DEBKA-Net-Weekly again reported that Israeli Dolphin-class submarines, like other naval and air units, were permanently using the big air and naval base on Eritreas Red Sea Dahlak Archipelago, near the confluence of the Arabian Sea, the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
All of a sudden, for some weeks now, the United States, India,Pakistan, Israel,Iran
and Iraq have become exceptionally outspoken about war preparations. With uncharacteristic
openness, they have burst into speech on the use of use of nuclear weapons.
The announcement in Washington on Friday, June 14, of the expulsion of the first
secretary at the Iraqi UN mission, Abdul Rahman Saad, for espionage, was another
element in the rhetorical escalation.
All in all, the war of words sounds as though it
is nearing the point of spilling over into deeds.
Most governments have three possible reasons for giving publicity to the types
of weaponry in the hands of adversaries:
1. They are just about ready to make their first military move - in the case
of Iran and Iraq, their military preparations would also entail a mega-terror
attack, for which they need to soften up world opinion in advance.
2. As a hands-off signal from the potential victims intelligence service
to the would-be aggressor that all is known and reprisals are store
if he goes ahead.
3. When signs of popular unrest or military disaffection against the leadership
of the enemys camp are detected. Certain revelations may have the power
to whip up outright domestic opposition to the enemy government.
In this context, Baghdad, conscious that the United
States is on the threshold of a decisive military move, published
its intelligence estimate that America plans a nuclear attack. The Iraqis have
no certain knowledge of the form the American strike will take, whether nuclear
bombs or only tactical devices, but it hopes exposure of this intent will put
the Americans off whatever they plan.
India and Pakistan may have crossed the point of
no return in their war plans. It is now evident that the visits
paid by defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld last week to New Delhi and Islamabad
did little more than postpone the eruption for which both nuclear nations have
set their faces.
In the Middle East, a military clash between Israel on one side and Syria and
the Lebanese Hizballah is very much in the cards. Since Damascus and Baghdad
are bound by mutual defense treaties, the Hizballah is militarily affiliated
to Teheran and Damascus - and all these parties are in close military and political
alliance with the Palestinians an Israel-Syrian border confrontation
could quickly light the fire of war under the entire region. The belligerents
in this case would proliferate to encompass the United States, possibly Britain,
as well as Israel,Iran, Iraq,Syria, Jordan,Lebanon, the Hizballah and the Palestinians.
India and Pakistan are fully engaged in this war of words. It cannot be ruled
out therefore that a Middle East war will be accompanied
by a war on the subcontinent. DEBKAfiles military experts
estimate that September is the next likely date for these chain-reaction conflicts
to erupt into full-scale belligerence.
The nuclear dimension of the India-Pakistan conflict is self-evident.
DEBKAfiles military sources on the Indian subcontinent report that behind
the smiling, relaxed welcome the Pentagon leaders received from Indian and Pakistan
leaders, they were shocked to find both smoothly discussing nuclear combat and
the death of many millions in this war their estimate is as high as 10-15
million - as inevitable and acceptable.
Indias military chiefs and its Kashmir commanders are described as clamoring
for the Vajpayee to go to war without delay. Intelligence reports from the field
indicate that Indias front-line troops, including air force and naval
units, are tired of waiting for the government in New Delhi to give the signal
and growing restive.
There are similar pressures in Pakistan. In Islamabad, high Pakistan officers
told Rumsfeld that if India attacks, Washington had better be prepared for Pakistan
to rally Muslims from all over Asia in a holy jihad against India. Having invested
so much in an Islamic nuclear bomb, Pakistan would lose face if
it was not used.
An India-Pakistan war game played a few weeks ago at the US Naval War College
charted this scenario:
An al Qaeda terror attack triggers an Indian-Pakistani war. India invades Pakistan;
Pakistan, whose army is half the size of Indias, falls back, firing off
3-4 nuclear missiles to cover its retreat and stop the Indian advance; India
retaliates with 10-12 nuclear missiles.
Israels border with Syria and Lebanon is just as incendiary.
Week after week, President Bashar Assad has been building up the military tension
since early April. DEBKAfiles military sources report that Syria and the
Hizballah have in those two months set up a missile wall along their border
with Israel, made up of thousands of projectiles capable of pounding all of
northern Israel and parts of its central heartland. Israel has held back from
firing a single shot to interfere with this buildup out of a misconceived tactical
reluctance to open a second front while its military hands are full keeping
Palestinian terrorists from attack Israeli civilians.
Encouraged by Israels passivity, the Syrian leader in early June ordered
his army chiefs to extend its missile line along the Syrian-Lebanese frontier,
including also the Syrian-Israel dividing line cutting through the Golan Heights.
Part of this new array forms a defensive loop around the strategic Lebanese
Beqaa valley, where the most important cluster of Syrian, Iranian and Hizballah
bases is situated. For Syria, the Lebanese Beqaa is its main line of defense
against an assault on Damascus from the west." {Emphasis added}