Title: 16 U.S. NAVAL SHIPS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PERSIAN GULF! INCLUDES ONE AIRCRAFT CARRIER DESTROYED -- Recent War Games Disaster
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Attacking Iran's supposed nuclear facilities might carry a very heavy American price tag.
Please study this map very closely, noticing in particular the incredibly small passageway that oil laden ships have to traverse as they pass out of the Persian Gulf, heading toward the Indian Ocean. About 40 percent of the world's crude oil shipments passes through the two-mile wide channel of the strategic Straits of Hormuz. Iranian forces are deployed at the head of the channel. Oman and the United Arab Emirates are located on the other side.
Furthermore, Iranian military forces are very sophisticated and well armed. Listen to this account speak to this current reality.
NEWS BRIEF: "Iran threat: Attack by West risks all 'Middle East oil' ", World Tribune, March 3, 2005
"Iran has warned that Gulf Arab oil would be endangered by any U.S. attack on the Islamic republic. In the first such threat, a leading Iranian official raised the prospect of Iranian retaliation against Middle East oil exports ... Teheran could easily block the Straits of Hormuz and use its missiles to strike tankers and GCC oil facilities ... Within weeks, the rest of the world would be starving for oil and the global economy could be in danger. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that oil tanker traffic through the Straits of Hormuz will rise to about 60 percent of global oil exports by 2025. Rezai, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and a candidate for president, told the Fars News Agency that any Western attack on Iran would send oil prices rocketing to $70 per barrel."
The economies of the Western world have so little stored oil and gas reserves that even a short interruption of crude oil shipments could hurt badly. This fact alone should give President Bush pause for concern.
Iran has -- in the past -- actually carried out war games to simulate an attack on American naval forces in the Persian Gulf.
NEWS BRIEF: "Countdown to Israel's Doom", DEBKAfile, carried in WorldNetDaily, April 12, 2002
The countdown ... begins Monday when the Iranian army and Revolutionary Guards start a large-scale five-day military exercise called 'Wadat', or 'Unity', in the Persian Gulf. Iranian naval and air units will rehearse the seizure of the strategic Straits of Hormuz and impose a mock blockade on Gulf oil shipping bound for Western and Japanese ports through the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean. They also will practice amphibious landings on the islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb in the mouth of Straits of Hormuz. About 50,000 soldiers – paratroops, marines, naval commandos and members of amphibious armored units – are gathered at the port of Bandar Abbas, with a fleet of landing craft, fast missile boats, submarines and aircraft at their disposal. These units will rehearse the forcible seizure of the Gulf islands ..."
As you can see, Iran fully intends to counter-attack should America launch an attack on either her nuclear facilities or at the beginning of an actual invasion. Since Russia has fully armed Iran and has armed her with the same type of anti-aircraft defense which is currently guarding Moscow, Iran is not the pushover Iraq proved to be. In fact, Iran has a formidable military force. She has the capability to really hit our forces hard should President Bush actually order an attack. Our leaders know this military reality, which may be the reason American forces have not attacked yet, even though Bush officials have been breathing fiery threats since Summer, 2003.
HOW VULNERABLE ARE OUR NAVAL FORCES? Vulnerability From Anti-Ship Missiles
Surely, you say, our Pentagon would not knowingly place our naval forces at undue risk by putting all of our active carriers in such a small place as the Persian Gulf! Surely, it does not matter that the Persian Gulf is congested, and its entrance is constricted so badly that literally, large ships have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz one by one, literally "single-file Injun-style". Surely, we are protected by defenses about which we know nothing. I hope you are right, for the facts as we know them are very scary, indeed.
In NEWS1449, entitled, "Has Russian and Chinese Missile Technology Doomed The U.S. Navy During The Upcoming Third World War?". In this article, we reported that Russia had leapfrogged over the U.S. Navy in ship-to-ship missile technology, having developed a supersonic SS-N-22 Moskit cruise missile, NATO code named"Sunburn." The SS-N-22 is considered the most lethal anti-ship missile in the world, and flies at over 2.5 times the speed of sound only a few feet from the surface of the water." [This speed amounts to almost 1,700 miles per hour, or 28 miles per minute].
Further, we reported that the Russians had deployed this missile on a completely new boat developed just to fire this anti-ship missile!
Then, we learned that China had bought this missile, along with the complete ship firing platform; thus, both China and Russia have deployed an anti-ship missile system that approaches so fast that our anti-missile defensive measures cannot have enough time to fix on the incoming missile, plot an intercept, and fire.
But, then we learned that this SS-N-22 "Sunburn" missile can carry a nuclear warhead! Thus, an entire carrier group could be wiped out in an instance by a single SS-N-22 missile exploding high over the carrier group with a nuclear warhead! This possibility is chilling when you consider that we are have concentrated carrier groups in such a small area as the Persian Gulf; further, if we attack Iran, we probably are going to have to concentrate even greater naval resources in the Persian Gulf area.
We have seen many reports that Iran has deployed a smaller version of this missile, which can be fired from small patrol boats. Once again, small patrol boats are traditionally hard to hit when they are operating in an area congested with other naval traffic.
We have heard reports that our Navy has recently deployed an anti-ship missile so fast that it radically heats the gun barrel. So, maybe we can defend ourselves against these supersonic missiles coming at our ships at 1,700 miles per hour; or, maybe a gattling gun system controlled by radar-directed computers simply cannot fire fast enough to hit such a fast missile! Keep this thought in mind, for we shall speak of it again later.
This next story shows us how very vulnerable our naval forces really are, especially in a close-in fight with a determined, skilled enemy. What makes this story so frightening is that this scenario, above, occurred during an American war games exercise! An American commander leading the "enemy" sunk the American fleet -- using tactics the Iranians and Russians are likely to use.
WAR GAMES DESTROY MYTH OF U.S. NAVAL INVULNERABILITY
NEWS BRIEF: "Myth Of US Invincibility Floats In The Persian Gulf", Rense.com, 4-16-2005
"During the summer of 2002, in the run-up to President Bush's invasion of Iraq, the US military staged the most elaborate and expensive war games ever conceived. Operation Millennium Challenge, as it was called, cost some $250 million, and required two years of planning ... it was set in the Persian Gulf, and simulated a conflict with a hypothetical rogue state. The "war" involved heavy use of computers, and was also played out in the field by 13,500 US troops, at 17 different locations and 9 live-force training sites. All of the services participated under a single joint command, known as JOINTFOR. The US forces were designated as 'Force Blue', and the enemy as OPFOR, or 'Force Red'. The 'war' lasted three weeks and ended with the overthrow of the dictatorial regime on August 15."
"At any rate, that was the official outcome. What actually happened was quite different, and ought to serve up a warning about the grave peril the world will face if the US should become embroiled in a widening conflict in the region ..."
This is not the first time that the American high command has fudged the results of a war gaming exercise because the real results would be very embarrassing to all U.S. leadership, from the White House down to the Pentagon. In the early years of the Clinton Administration, America's top guns -- her elite fighter pilots -- engaged in an war gaming exercise with Israeli pilots. The American aces were humiliated, so much so that the Pentagon discreetly asked the Israeli government not to publicize the results! The story I read was very small and buried deeply in our local paper.
Now, let us return to this news story. The American officer leading the "enemy" -- the "Force Red" team -- was "the straight-talking Marine commander who had been brought out of retirement to lead Force Red. His name was Lt. Gen. Paul Van Riper, and he had played the role of the crazed but cunning leader of the hypothetical rogue state ... In the first days of the 'war', Van Riper's Force Red sent most of the US fleet to the bottom of the Persian Gulf." (Ibid.)
The tactics adopted by this Marine Corps general were astounding and they produced "The Worst US Naval Disaster Since Pearl Harbor".
"The war game was described as 'free play', meaning that both sides were unconstrained, free to pursue any tactic in the book of war in the service of victory ... Much of the action was computer-generated. But representative military units in the field also acted out the various moves and countermoves. The comparison to a chess match is not inaccurate. The vastly superior US armada consisted of the standard carrier battle group with its full supporting cast of ships and planes. Van Riper had at his disposal a much weaker flotilla of smaller vessels, many of them civilian craft, and numerous assets typical of a Third World country." (Ibid.)
"But Van Riper made the most of weakness. Instead of trying to compete
directly with Force Blue, he utilized ingenious low-tech alternatives. Crucially,
he prevented the stronger US force from eavesdropping on his communications
by foregoing the use of radio transmissions. Van Riper relied on couriers instead
to stay in touch with his field officers ... At every turn, the wily Van Riper
did the unexpected. And in the process he managed to achieve an asymmetric advantage
... Astutely and very covertly, Van Riper armed his civilian marine craft and
deployed them near the US fleet, which never expected an attack from small pleasure
boats ... Force Red's prop-driven aircraft suddenly were swarming around the
US warships, making Kamikaze dives. Some of the pleasure boats made suicide
attacks. Others fired Silkworm cruise missiles from close range, and sunk a
carrier, the largest ship in the US fleet, along with two helicopter-carriers
loaded with marines ... the Navy was unprepared. When it was over, most of the
US fleet had been destroyed. Sixteen US warships lay on the bottom, and the
rest were in disarray. Thousands of American sailors were dead, dying, or wounded.
"If the games had been real, it would have been the worst US naval defeat since Pearl Harbor." (Ibid.)
Clearly, this war games disaster was something the Pentagon could not have foreseen. Publicly, Pentagon spokesmen admitted of no disaster, since, in war gaming, destroyed equipment and dead sailors can be "resurrected" at the touch of a keyboard. At the end, the government of the rogue state was overthrown and victory achieved -- but only after General Van Riper quit in disgust. Oh, yes, and the Pentagon did not admit that they had anything to learn and insisted there was nothing they needed to change.
But, you may argue, surely they knew better internally and were working madly to change tactics so they would not have this kind of real disaster, from a real enemy, who can really kill our sailors and marines. You may be right, except for the fact that most of the reasons for this disaster are systemic and cannot be easily or quickly corrected. How can this be?
The first problem is that the Navy has heavily invested in equipment which does not work effectively in close-in places like the Persian Gulf. In other words, our Navy was created, and equipped, to fight a blue-water enemy out in the open ocean, and is very vulnerable to a determined close-in enemy using unconventional tactics. Listen as this article explains this terrible reality.
"... instead of being over the horizon like the Navy would normally fight, and at stand-off ranges that would enable their protective systems to be employed, now they're sitting right off the shore ... where you're looking at them. I mean, the models and simulation that we put together, it couldn't make a distinction (between enemy vessels vs friendly) ... all of a sudden, whoops, there they are. And that's about the time he attacked ..."
"Gen. Kernan's nuanced defense was that the simulation had necessarily been conducted in the vicinity of busy sea lanes, hence, in the presence of live commercial shipping; and this required the Navy to 'turn off' some of its defenses, which it would not have done in a real wartime situation. All of which is probably true, but the general's remark that in a real Gulf war the fleet would be deployed differently, in a stand-off manner, with its over-the-horizon defenses fully operable, was a misrepresentation of the actual situation in the Persian Gulf, today. The US Navy's biggest problem operating in Gulf waters are the constraints that the region's confined spaces impose on US naval defenses, which were designed for the open sea. The Persian Gulf is nothing but a large lake, after all, and in such an environment the Navy's over-the-horizon defenses are seriously compromised. Nor can the Navy withdraw to a safe distance, so long as its close-in presence is required to support the US occupation forces in Iraq. The serious implications of this simple fact for a possible future conflict, for instance, involving Iran, have never, to my knowledge, been discussed in the US press." (Ibid.)
As the interview with General Kernan continued, he kept talking about the Navy operating "over-the-horizon", which is fine if you are fighting the blue-water Russian navy in the open ocean; however, if the US Navy is fighting an Iranian force of quick, mobile fighting ships and boats, and aircraft, all of which are equipped with Russian-made supersonic missiles, losses are likely to be staggering, just as this war simulation demonstrated.
General Kernan should not have been surprised, because earlier studies had reported that these kind of problems existed, and were not reserved just for the Iranians.
"As recently as 1997 some forty different nations possessed these awesome weapons (anti-ship cruise missiles). By 2000 the number had jumped to 70, with at least 100 different types identified, and a dozen different nations actively pursuing their own production and research/development programs ... why are anti-ship cruise missiles so attractive? The answer is that they are relatively simple to develop, especially in comparison with ballistic missiles. Cruise missiles can be constructed from many of the same readily available parts and components used in commercial aviation. They are also reliable and effective, easy to deploy and use, and are relatively inexpensive. Even poor nations can afford them. One cruise missile represents but a tiny fraction of the immense expenditure of capital the US has invested in each of its 300 active warships. Yet, a single cruise missile can sink or severely disable any ship in the US Navy."
Now, listen carefully to this next revelation, for it validates a fact Cutting Edge reported several years ago, when we posted an article entitled, "Has Russian Technology Just Doomed The U.S. Naval Fleet?", NEWS1449. A key factor which rendered the American fleet so vulnerable to these Russian supersonic anti-ship missiles was that they flew so quickly, American protective radars could not react quickly enough to track the incoming missile, plot a solution, and fire the defensive gattling guns. This next revelation validates our concerns, and the source is highly believable, for it is the U.S. Congressional (Government) Accounting Office.
"According to the GAO (Government Accounting Office) report, 'the key to defeating cruise missile threats is in gaining additional reaction time', so that ships can detect, identify and destroy the attacking missiles. The thorny problem, as I've pointed out, is that the Navy's long-range AWAC's and intermediate-range Aegis radar defense systems are significantly less effective in littoral (or coastal) environments, the Persian Gulf being the prime example." (Ibid.)
Here we have two distinctively different problems, which combine to produce a very fatal result.
1) American anti-ship missile protective radar cannot reach a solution quickly enough to fire the protective guns fast enough to kill the incoming supersonic missiles flying at 1,700 miles per hour.
2) American radar systems were not designed for coastal situations, where an enemy can hide and pop out to fire quickly at a passing ship and then get out of harm's way. No, U.S. radar is designed to track an enemy vessel "over the horizon", plot a solution, fire the missile, and kill the enemy ship without ever physically seeing it. Smaller vessels firing a variety of close-in weaponry -- including the supersonic ship killers -- can get in under this American radar, and score the kill.
You just do not change this kind of wrong weaponry problem overnight. Meanwhile, the Russians are proceeding quickly to make their ship-killers even more deadly.
"The other important factor is that cruise missile technology itself is racing ahead. The GAO report warned that the next generation of anti-ship missiles that will begin to appear by 2007 will be faster and stealthier, and will also be equipped with advanced target-seekers, i.e., advanced guidance systems. In fact, one of these advanced anti-ship cruise missiles is already available: the Russian-made Yakhonts missile. It flies at close to Mach 3 (three times the speed of sound), can hit a squirrel in the eye, and has a range of 185 miles: enough range to target the entire Persian Gulf (from Iran), shredding Gen. Kernan's glib remark that in a real war the US expeditionary force will stand-off in safety 'over the horizon' while mounting an amphibious attack. Nonsense. Henceforth, in a real Gulf war situation there will be no standing off in safety. The Yakhonts missile has already erased the concept of the horizon, at least, within the Persian Gulf, and it has done so without ever having been fired in combat---yet ... By their own admission the Russians developed the Yakhonts missile for export. No doubt, it was high on Iran's shopping list." (Ibid.)
The concluding information is truly sobering.
"... for a variety of reasons the Navy's forecasts for upgrading US ship defenses against cruise missile attack are overly optimistic. The Navy's own data shows that there will be no silver bullet. The technology gap is structural, and will not be overcome for many years, if at all. US warships will be vulnerable to cruise missile attack into the foreseeable future, perhaps increasingly so ... the most vulnerable ship in the US fleet is none other than the flagship itself, the big Nimitz-class carriers."
The knowledge that our mighty carriers are extremely vulnerable to these anti-ship missiles is not new information, nor is it limited to naval experts. During the early days of the Iraq invasion (March - April, 2003), I talked at length with a family friend who had recently retired from the Army as a Major. He gave me much good advice, including the status of our aircraft carriers if they faced a determined enemy equipped with modern missiles. He said that our carriers were "just sitting ducks". Yet, most Americans still believe that the safest place to be stationed during a battle is on a carrier.
The author of this article then concludes his assessment.
"Just think: If Van Riper could accomplish what he did with Silkworms, the lowly scuds of the cruise missile family, imagine what could happen if the US Navy, sitting in the Gulf like so many ducks, should face a massed-attack of supersonic Yakhonts missiles, a weapon that may well be unstoppable?"
INDIAN - RUSSIAN ANTI-SHIP MISSILE TEST A 100% SUCCESS
At this point, let us review a recent example of how fast and how deadly these anti-ship missiles truly are.
NEWS BRIEF: "BrahMos supersonic cruise missile test-fired off west coast: 100 per cent success in ship-to-ship mode", The Hindu Online, April 16, 2005
"A perfect 10: BrahMos, the supersonic cruise missile, taking off from the Naval vessel Rajput on Friday morning in the Arabian Sea towards a decommissioned vessel, which was the target ... The 10th flight of BrahMos, the supersonic cruise missile jointly developed by India and Russia, which took place on Friday in a ship-to-ship mode was "a hundred per cent success." The missile took off from the Naval vessel INS Rajput sailing in the Arabian off the western coast and pulverized a decommissioned naval ship."
Notice here that this anti-ship missile was a project "jointly developed by India and Russia". This fact confirms our earlier revelation that the Russians developed and currently own this missile technology. Russia gave China this technology many years ago, but now she is spreading it to other nations.
Now, let us return to this most sobering article.
"The event signals that the production of the missile for the Navy has started. All production facilities in India and Russia are totally geared up for producing enough numbers of missiles ... BrahMos is essentially an anti-ship supersonic cruise missile that flies at a speed of 2.8 to 3 Mach (2.8 to three times the speed of sound). It can take out targets 290 km away ... Dr. Pillai called the perfect flight 'a big milestone from the point of view of the Navy and we could see the devastating power of the missile against the target'."
"The targeted ship went to pieces because of the power of the missile and its kinetic energy from its supersonic speed." (Ibid.)
Obviously, a missile traveling at this great speed will deliver a devastation greater than just the explosive power of the warhead; as this article stated, part of the devastation was caused by "kinetic energy from its supersonic speed". The ship literally flew into pieces.
Now, let us review the last bit of information from this article; you will discover that this unbelievably fast anti-ship missile can be deployed exactly as the Marine Corps General Paul Van Riper deployed his forces in the war gaming exercise, about which we spoke at length at the beginning of this article!
"BrahMos is a versatile missile that can be launched from silos on land, big trucks, ships, aircraft and submarine. Work has started on developing the missile to be launched from aircraft." (Ibid.)
The general knew all about this supersonic anti-ship missile and how it could be deployed. In fact, the general used obsolete, subsonic anti-ship missiles to sink 16 American ships; these slow missiles were effective in destroying 16 ships simply because of the tactics he employed!
How many ships would have been destroyed in this war gaming simulation had General Van Riper possessed supersonic missiles?
Perhaps the reason the Bush Administration has never actually attacked Iran, even though we have breathed fire and brimstone at them for two full years now, screaming at them "You're next", was because of this war gaming disaster in 2002. Knowing how vulnerable our fleet is in the Persian Gulf, have our leaders kept us from actual combat against Iran?
We have stated our belief that Iran is protected from a government overthrow by the United States government because she is prophesied in Ezekiel 38-39 as marching with Russia in an attack against Israel in the End of the Age. Iran's current government is hardline Islamic and very anti-West, anti-Israel -- exactly the kind of government which would participate in a Russian-led invasion against Israel.
Should America force a "regime change" through an attack or series of attacks, Iran would be ruled by pro-West and either pro-Israel or at least holding less of an animosity toward Israel. This type of government would not march with Russia. Therefore, we have always believed that we may attack Iran with missiles, but will not be able to actually overthrow the Iranian regime.
Now, we realize that we have a military vulnerability most people did not know we had -- close-in fighting with a foe armed with modern weaponry. Perhaps this reality is the reason we have not actually attacked Iran. Will we ever attack her? We know the propaganda on which a supposed attack is based is false: Iran already possesses nuclear weaponry and is not now in the process of "getting close to building warheads".
We shall just have to wait to see what happens, and pray that a lot of American sailors and marines do not pay with their lives.
World events are swirling toward their prophetic conclusion, a reality we
shall address soon with a major article.
Are you spiritually ready? Is your family? Are you adequately protecting your loved ones? This is the reason for this ministry, to enable you to first understand the peril facing you, and then help you develop strategies to warn and protect your loved ones. Once you have been thoroughly trained, you can also use your knowledge as a means to open the door of discussion with an unsaved person. I have been able to use it many times, and have seen people come to Jesus Christ as a result. These perilous times are also a time when we can reach many souls for Jesus Christ, making an eternal difference.
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