First Basra, Then Baghdad a Reversal
March 26, 2003
The US War Command has radically reversed the order of its Iraq campaign: Instead of going hell for leather for Baghdad without subduing the rest of the country, General Tommy Franks and his staff have decided that control of Iraqs second biggest city, the largely Shiite Basra in the south, could provide a handle to expedite the Baghdad campaign. It must therefore come first.
This is revealed by DEBKAfiles exclusive military sources Tuesday night, March 25, at the end of Day Six of the Iraq War. The allied war command is counting on the fight for Basra, led by British forces, being resolved Tuesday night or Wednesday at latest. If not, reinforcements will be brought in.
The circumstances leading up to this reversal are as follows:
1. However much this may be denied, American ground forces have fallen behind their operational timeline in particular the 1st and 2nd Marine Divisions, under the command of General David Conway, which bypassed Basra and headed north. Instead of racing forward, these divisions negotiated the Tigris River crossing with utmost caution in case the Iraqi Special Republic Guard troops they encountered unleashed chemical weapons.
Then, too, the delayed deployment of the 4th Infantry Division - thanks to the breakdown of US-Turkish understandings two days into the war - leaves a very large gap in the strength consigned to the Baghdad front. This division was to have transited Turkey with its tank force, crossed over to the northern Iraqi oil town of Mosul and headed south to Tikrit in time to take part in the fight for Baghdad.
At the last minute, the 4th Division had to be diverted to the Suez Canal for shipment to Kuwait. In another change of plan, the divisions troops have been put ashore at the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbo, to be lifted by helicopter and truck to western Jordan and Iraq. Their destination there is Al Ramadi. Their heavy tanks will be delivered separately aboard 16 US freighters due to pass through the Suez Canal Tuesday night on their way to Yanbo.
All this means that by Saturday, March 29, the scheduled day of assault, not all the sectors of the Baghdad battlefront will be fully manned in time.
Even without these late-in-the-day hitches, military analysts as we reported yesterday - judge the 170,000 allied infantry troops allocated to the Baghdad campaign to be below the strength adequate for vanquishing the 145,000 troops of Iraqs Special Republic Guards Divisions and Saddams Fedayeen.
2. US war leaders underestimated the scale of the guerrilla war the Iraqi command was able to organize in two-three days and its potential for disrupting the long supply lines running hundreds of kilometers from Qatar and Kuwait all the way to the approaches of Baghdad. Tuesday, General Franks issued a high priority order to deal with this threat.
3. According to DEBKAfiles intelligence sources, the Franks command at Doha learned that Saddam Hussein ordered his son Uday Monday, March 24, to send out army and Baath party agents with pockets full of cash on two missions: to stir up a Palestinian-style Intifada against coalition troops among the civilian populations of the towns bypassed by the allies, and to prevent the Americans and British igniting popular uprisings against the Saddam regime.
Franks counteracted by throwing into the arena a secret weapon, a 3,000-man opposition Shiite militia organized by Majid al-Khoei, the 34-year old son of Ayatollah Khoei, the legendary spiritual leader of Iraqs Shiites. The militia, trained and funded by the US war command, waited in Qatar for the signal to go into action.
Monday night, March 25, the Shiite militiamen reached the southern outskirts of Basra at the same time as Uday Husseins agents entered from the north. Trapped between the two foes were elements of the British 7th Armored Divisions Desert Rats positioned in the southern and western sections of Basra. By Tuesday morning, Udays forces with 50 tanks had evicted the British troops from Basra. By Tuesday night, they were back for the final showdown.
This is the background to the riots and armed clashes sweeping the southern city Tuesday, March 25. It also inspired the fervent hope expressed by US defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld at his news briefing that the Basra uprising would succeed.
What makes control of Basra so important for the Baghdad campaign?
DEBKAfiles military sources reveal that allied generals are banking heavily on a successful Shiite uprising against the Saddam regime in Basra under Majid Khoeis leadership spreading to the Shiite holy cities of Najef and Karbala on the route to Baghdad and also infecting the Shiite troops serving with the Special Republican Divisions defending the capital. Especially targeted are the Shiites of the Iraqi Armys 2nd Army which is posted in Baghdad.
However, if Uday beats General Franks to the draw and is able to incite the Shiites to rise up in support of the Iraqi army, thereby retaining hold of Basra even for a brief period - the Shiite community of at least 12 million will not dare to line up behind Majid Khoei. There will be nothing then to stop the Iraqi guerrilla war against allied supply lines growing into a wholesale paramilitary campaign against the American and British military presence in Iraq.
Much for the forthcoming contest in Baghdad is therefore riding on the outcome
of the fight for Basra, in which British troops and Shiite militiamen, under
cover of American fighter planes and helicopters, are pitted against the paramilitary
forces of Uday Hussein, supported by elements of the Iraqi 11th, 51s and 6th
Divisions, as well as Saddams Fedayeen and the local Baath militia.