Spotlight Leaves Arafat, but He's Still in the Show
By GREG MYRE

NY Times

June 2, 2003

AMALLAH, West Bank, May 31 — The street outside the modest offices of the Palestinian prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas, is buzzing. A pair of American envoys have come and gone. A cabinet meeting has just ended, and as ministers emerge with cellphones glued to their ears, journalists encircle them and press for details of the latest peace plans.

A couple of miles away, the scene at the rocket-scorched compound of Yasir Arafat, the Palestinian leader, can only be described as listless. The lone security guard is so bored that he invites a journalist to ask him some questions. Mr. Arafat's close aide, Nabil Aburdeineh, emerges from the sandbagged headquarters for his daily stroll around the large, deserted parking lot, where the globe-trotting Mr. Arafat used to begin and end his frequent travels with a helicopter ride.

The international spotlight that Mr. Arafat so relishes has been dimmed by an Israeli boycott and a not-so-veiled warning that he might not be allowed back from any trip abroad. But Palestinian officials and analysts insist that he will still be the most influential Palestinian figure in renewed peace negotiations, even if he is working behind the scenes.

"No Palestinian would dare sit with the Israelis or the Americans without his approval," Mr. Aburdeineh said of Mr. Arafat. "Nobody here can even go see his wife without the green light from him."

While Mr. Arafat retains considerable influence, the dynamics of the Middle East conflict have been changing in the month since Mr. Abbas assumed office.

Israel and the United States now have a Palestinian leader they are prepared to meet, and the Middle East dialogue is suddenly taking place at a level not seen since January 2001, when peace talks collapsed after the first few months of the current fighting.

Mr. Abbas's cabinet meets weekly without Mr. Arafat, and the new government is seeking to assert its authority. Mr. Abbas says he hopes to reach a cease-fire deal this week with the Islamic militant group Hamas and perhaps other radical Palestinian organizations. Israel is demanding more than a temporary cease-fire, something Mr. Arafat was never able to deliver.

Perhaps the most striking example of Mr. Arafat's lower profile will occur this week at the regional summit meeting at the Red Sea resort of Aqaba in Jordan, where more than half the population is of Palestinian origin. President Bush will meet there with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel and Mr. Abbas. Mr. Arafat is not invited.

"He's not invited to the party, but his presence will be felt," said Asher Arian, senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute in Jerusalem. "If this leads to a modicum of security for Israel, it will be defined as Arafat being contained."

Despite a less visible role, Mr. Arafat still has any number of ways to influence events.

He remains head of the Palestinian Authority, and is authorized to fire the prime minister. He is also the leader of the Palestine Liberation Organization, which is ultimately responsible for peace negotiations. And he heads the Fatah movement, the leading faction in the P.L.O.

"He still has all the strings attached to his fingers," said Ali B. Jarbawi, a political science professor at Bir Zeit University in Ramallah. Mr. Arafat in effect delayed by a day Mr. Sharon's meeting with Mr. Abbas on Thursday.

The Palestinian leader insisted that the P.L.O.'s executive committee approve the talks in advance. The committee, which Mr. Arafat dominates, will debate the details of any peace proposal.

When Mr. Abbas and Mr. Sharon completed their three-hour meeting in Jerusalem around midnight, Mr. Abbas immediately headed to Mr. Arafat's compound for a briefing that lasted past 2 a.m.

In the face of international pressure, Mr. Arafat grudgingly agreed to create the post of prime minister, and give it to Mr. Abbas, his longtime deputy. The two men have a history of quarreling, and then making up. After Mr. Abbas's appointment, they immediately fought over the makeup of the cabinet, though relations have settled down since then.

The two men are seen as holding similar positions regarding negotiations with Israel, though Mr. Abbas has been much more critical of the Palestinian violence in the current fighting than Mr. Arafat has.

They have been meeting at least twice a week at Mr. Arafat's compound, and they speak by phone daily, Palestinian officials said.

Mr. Abbas, who seems to dislike public attention as much as Mr. Arafat enjoys it, is trying to generate public support, but is unlikely to win it unless he can persuade Israel to ease its punitive measures and improve economic conditions, said Mr. Jarbawi, the political scientist.

If Mr. Abbas attends too many international gatherings while Mr. Arafat remains constrained, it could backfire and harm the prime minister's reputation among Palestinians, some of whom see him as a creation of the Israelis and the Americans.

"The American and Israeli game plan is to show that Mahmoud Abbas can deliver what Arafat could not, and raise Abbas's standing in Palestinian society," said Gerald Steinberg, professor of political science at Bar-Ilan University in Israel. "Arafat's role now is one of the spoiler. He can put obstacles in the way to make the talks more difficult."

Mr. Aburdeineh, who lives in Mr. Arafat's compound, said the Palestinian leader was able to work effectively despite the restrictions.

He noted that Mr. Arafat was not present when Israelis and Palestinians reached their first agreement in 1993, which was worked out secretly in Oslo. The Palestinian team was led by Ahmed Qureia, now the speaker of the Palestinian parliament.

Israel began confining Mr. Arafat in December 2001 after a surge in Palestinian suicide bombings, and he has left Ramallah only once since then. That day trip in May of last year, which included brief stops in three Palestinian cities in the West Bank, was also the last time Mr. Arafat left his compound, according to Mr. Aburdeineh.

In an effort to further isolate Mr. Arafat, Mr. Sharon has announced that he will not meet any diplomat who sees him. But this past week, the French and Spanish foreign ministers both visited Mr. Arafat.

The possibility of exiling Mr. Arafat comes up periodically at Israeli cabinet meetings, and was again debated two weeks ago during the latest wave of suicide bombings. But Mr. Sharon has told the Americans that he will not physically harm Mr. Arafat, and, Israeli officials say, that policy is unlikely to change.

Israel's security agencies also oppose sending Mr. Arafat into exile, believing that it would only strengthen his popular support.

"The Israelis keep trying to weaken him, but it's a futile effort," said Mr. Aburdeineh, noting that the Palestinians are demanding that Mr. Arafat be allowed to travel. "There must be a solution to this issue."