U.S. IRAQI OFFENSIVE MAY BE DELAYED BECAUSE OF TALIBAN SUCCESS IN AFGHAN BATTLES
by DEBKAfile, 8 March 2002
"DEBKAfiles military experts report the intense fighting over the past week in the mountains of Afghanistan south of Gardez, between the US 101st Airborne and 10th Mountain divisions and al-Qaeda and Taliban forces, is beginning to impinge on US preparations for its coming assault on Iraq.
A poor showing by the hundreds of Afghans fighting alongside US troops has
forced US military planners to pour into the battle zone American reinforcements
that were earmarked for other combat arenas. DEBKAfiles military sources
say general Tommy Franks, the US Central Command chief, transferred to the
Gardez battlefield US forces standing by on Omans Masirah Island base
for the US offensive against Iraq. Several thousand more may have to follow,
if fighting flares up in additional Taliban-al Qaeda pockets around Afghanistan.
US forces in Gardez commanded by major general Frank Hagenbeck faced a hard
fact this week: the joint US-Afghan force was unable to stem the influx of
Taliban and al-Qaeda reinforcements from Pakistan, only several dozen kilometers
away, and from among additional enemy concentrations in Afghanistan
particularly since Thursday, when the mountain region was struck with blinding
snow storms.
DEBKAfiles military sources say that, while the Americans were pouring
additional soldiers, 17 assault helicopters and tank-busting A-10 aircraft
into the area, the other side was moving in reinforcements too, equipped with
large quantities of anti-tank missiles and various shoulder-held surface-to-air
missiles, including US-made Stingers.
US spy satellites and drones spotted groups of Taliban and al-Qaeda converging
on the battle zone from as far away as the Hindu Kush mountains, north of
the city of Jalalabad, and the Zabul province south of Gardez.
US commanders had hoped to win the battle before the enemy reinforcements
arrived. But military experts watching the fighting judged this hope illusory.
They estimate the engagement will continue past the weekend and into its second
week, reaching a climax at mid-week.
DEBKAfiles military experts report that the Taliban and al Qaeda commanders
in Pakistan appear to be bucked up enough by their success in standing up
to the American-led assault to revise their planning. Previously, Taliban
and al-Qaeda terrorist attacks had been plotted for US forces, UN peacekeepers
and other targets linked to the interim government of Hamid Karzai, in major
Afghan cities, such as Kabul, Kandahar and Mazer e-Sharif. The bulk of their
forces were to have been reserved in enclaves for a summer counter-offensive
to be launched around the country in mid-June or early July.
But now, Taliban and al-Qaeda chiefs have decided to delay no longer. Instead
of waiting for the United States to move against their enclaves, they are
going on the offensive to try and draw US forces to the strongholds.
Taliban and al-Qaeda commanders see the balance of war tilting to their side,
noting that Afghan fighters in the Gardez front do not share US troops
enthusiasm and dedication to their missions. Back in December, during the
assault on the Tora Bora cave complex, Afghans were clearly reluctant
even for good pay to carry on fighting the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The
same manifestation recurred in this weeks battles.
The escalating Israeli-Palestinian conflict too further complicates Americas
military situation. Should the violence spill over and the Lebanese Hizballh
buttressed by al Qaeda militants - join the fray to ease Israels
military pressure on the Palestinians, Washingtons plans and timetable
for its Iraq campaign would be set back once again."