REVIEW OF EVENTS IN REGION AND INTELIGENCE REPORTS
by DEBKAfile 7 April 2002
"In the coming week, the protagonists in the current Middle East crisis will race against time to bring matters to a head before US secretary of state Colin Powell arrives on his new mission on behalf of President George W. Bush. The Israelis, the Palestinians, Syria, Iraq, Iran and the Hizballah, will all try to establish their mastery of the situation. Israel will do its best to stay in step with Washington, while all the other parties do what they can to defeat US goals and Powells mission.
The events in store in the days to come fall under four headings:
A. The war activity on two primary fronts: West Bank cities and the Israel-Lebanese
frontier;
B. The campaign of terror pursued by the Palestinians and their Arab allies,
principally the Hizballah and al Qaeda;
C. The undercover war waged around the Middle East
D. The slide towards a comprehensive regional eruption
IDF Counter-Terror Operation Chokes off Palestinian Terror For the
Moment
Israels tanks, infantry, special forces and air units have in ten days
retaken the West Bank and gained control of major portions of its seven main
towns: Nablus, Jenin, Tulkarm, Qalqilya, Ramallah, Bethlehem and Hebron. The
Palestinian Authority has virtually buckled as a ruling entity, while its
security organs command centers, communications, logistics and supply
systems have been disabled.
The Palestinian terrorist mechanisms - the Fatah-Tanzim, the al Aqsa Martyrs
Brigades, the Hamas and Jihad Islami - are seriously impaired; scores of senior
terror commanders have been killed and 2000 terrorists and their officers
captured. The logistics and manufacturing facilities that turned out and distributed
hundreds of suicide bomb belts and booby-trapped vehicles, mortars and rockets,
have been wiped out, as have the Palestinian presses that turned out many
millions of counterfeit US dollars and Israeli shekels for funding terror
operations.
Above all, Israel has isolated Yasser Arafat, locking him away with some of
his key security and terror chiefs in his narrow private quarters in Ramallah.
This command structure is therefore cut off from its lines of communication
with the terrorist and military units on the ground.
The initial result is dramatic: eight consecutive days without terrorist attacks,
after a month of daily suicide bombings though this is not for want
of trying. The last time the terrorists struck was Sunday, March 31, when
a suicide bomber blew up an Israeli Arab restaurant in Haifa and a second
destroyed the Efrat first aid station south of Bethlehem.
But it is not over yet. Data gathered by DEBKAfiles military sources
show that Arafat anticipated the crippling effect Israels counter-offensive
would have on his suicide campaign. He made standby arrangements that he can
activate notwithstanding Israels military presence in all the West Bank
cities.
His determination to do so was stiffened by the words he heard from President
Bush Saturday, April 6, at his joint news conference with British prime minister
Tony Blair. The president accused Arafat of failing in leadership, not performing
and never living up to the promises he made in Oslo. Bush added he expects
Israel to quit Palestinian cities 'without delay', following which Ariel Sharon
called the president to assure him Israel means to complete its operation
as quickly as possible. However, Powell made it clear he has no plans to call
on the Palestinian leader in the course of his mission.
Arafat will now go all-out to prove to Bush, as well as to the Israelis, that
he cannot be pushed aside.
His tools for achieving this were assembled in good time.
Israeli military intelligence, the CIA and other Israeli and US counter-terrorism
agencies have discovered, according to DEBKAfiles military sources,
that the six major terrorist attacks rocking Israeli Mediterranean coastal
cities in March (Tel Aviv, Haifa, Netanya and Ashdod) had a hidden purpose,
besides killing a large number of Israelis. They diverted attention from the
rubber dinghies dropping al Qaeda and Hizballah terror
squads, interspersed with Palestinians, along Israeli beaches.
The discovery was confirmed in the final reports of the investigations into
the two last Netanya attacks: the assault at the Jeremy Hotel on March 9 and
the Passover Seder massacre at the seaside resorts Park Hotel, 18 days
later.
After both attacks, black dinghies were found buried on the sandy beach, prompting
wide-scale searches up and down the Israeli coast from Rosh Hanikra in the
north to Ashkelon in the south.
Ten dinghies turned up in at least three locations: five in Netanya; the rest
in nearby Michmoret and Caesarea. Each dinghy can carry eight to 10 commandos
with their weapons and gear. Tracks in the sand showed that each toted a heavy
pack weighing 40 to 70 kilos (90 to 155 lb), suggesting large explosive charges
or heavy weapons, such as missiles.
The last landing appears to have taken place under cover of the suicide attack
on the Allenby Street café in Tel Aviv Saturday night, March 30.
For most of Sunday, March 31, Israeli security forces closed the old Tel Aviv-Haifa
highway along a 70-mile (110-km) stretch - from the Petach Tikva junction
just north of Tel Aviv to the southern entrances of Haifa. The public notice
to frustrated motorists and commuters explained the measure as due to the
incursion of Palestinian suicide bombers from the West Bank. The al Qaeda-Hizballah
infiltration from the opposite direction, the Mediterranean, was not released.
Intelligence agencies and Israeli troops operating in Palestinian areas this
week are actively seeking these intruders before they can be activated.
In West Bank, Israel Tests New Methods and Weapons Systems
for
Capturing Arab Towns
Israels counter-terror operation in the West Bank is on a scale that
the Middle East has not seen for many years. An extended division has been
fielded - roughly equal to two regular Western divisions. The massive deployment
of tank and armored infantry units under the cover of warplanes also turns
out to be a large-scale experiment in sophisticated combat means for rapidly
capturing Arab cities. DEBKAfile s military sources disclose that US
special force observers were almost certainly present in some of the battle
arenas. Lessons drawn from the US-led Afghanistan War appear to be undergoing
tests in practice, together with advanced weapons systems developed especially
for incursions into densely populated urban areas.
The differences between the two conflicts are also manifest. Whereas the Taliban
and al Qaeda effected tactical withdrawals in the manner of organized armies,
the Palestinian forces are falling apart. The Israeli army is therefore confronted
with piecemeal combat against small bands of terrorists, a complicated and
unpredictable challenge for regular combatants.
In the post-1993 Oslo period, the IDF was often described as past its peak.
This week, barring a few initial slip-ups, the reserve units, which are the
backbone of the IDF, proved themselves capable of deploying at high speed
and functioning effectively in battle.
The call-up turnout was above 96 percent in most units much higher
than forecast; it took the new intake less than 24 hours to receive instruction,
collect equipment and join their units, although many had not seen the inside
of an army base for years. Morale was unexpectedly high - even among the many
over-40s called away from families, jobs and businesses, with little advance
warning. In short order, the units began operating smoothly.
This has been an eye-opener with profound socio-political implications. The
typical 35-45 year-old Israeli city-dweller is often dismissed as a fairly
self-absorbed, anti-social axe-grinder. The military operation to root out
Palestinian terror has brought forth an unsuspected body of men eager to fight
for what they regard as the defense of their homes.
Syria and Iran-Backed Hizballah Open Second Front
Syrian units, Hizballah and other terror bases in Lebanon may very soon expect
to find themselves in Israels firing line.
One of Israels primary targets will be the 20,000-strong Syrian occupation
army in Lebanon; another, the 8,000 to 10,000 Hizballah guerrillas
Irans proxy terror legion, and a third, units of the Iranian Pazdaran,
the Revolutionary Guards, among them some 300 military commanders and instructors
attached to the Shiite group.
In recent weeks, Tehran has shipped to the Hizballah more than 8,000 new missiles
and rockets of various types. Aided by Iranian Revolutionary Guardsmen, the
Shiite group has lined them up in central and southern Lebanon, ready to hit
targets as far south as the outskirts of the central Israeli town of Hadera.
Israel will first and foremost de-activate the Syrian bases in Lebanon
especially the installations in the eastern Beqaa Valley - and smash Hizballah
missile and Katyusha rocket bases that target Israel regularly from southern
and central Lebanon. The attacking force will also take the opportunity of
wiping out Hizballah and Iranian military bases in the Beqaa Valley.
Another potential target is the headquarters, docks and landing strips of
Ahmed Jibrils Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine General
Command, a hardline group controlled by Syrian military intelligence. Israeli
forces will also seek out Palestinian camps in south Lebanon that, according
to US and Israeli intelligence, harbor al Qaeda fighters.
DEBKAfiles military sources expect Israel, in the first instance, to
emulate the American war model in Afghanistan, and employ crushing might.
Syrian targets will be subjected to an aerial blitz and Lebanon will for the
first time experience a surface-surface missile assault, as well as artillery
and ship-launched missile barrages.
Different tactics will be employed just across the border in south Lebanon.
There, large armored columns and mobile artillery will cross in to destroy
Hizballah rocket emplacements.
On the diplomatic front, Sharon made sure of White House approval before finalizing
his war plan for the Hizballah and its patrons, just as he did with his campaign
against Palestinian terrorist strongholds. DEBKAfiles military sources
say the prime minister got the green light last week, whereupon the army began
calling up reservists and concentrating large-scale forces on the Lebanese
border and the Golan Heights, which is divided between Syria and Israel."
[Emphasis added]