POWELL PEACE FAILURE: MID-EAST TENSIONS SURELY TO RISE
DEBKAfile 17 April 2002
"That US Secretary of State Colin Powell wound up his 10-day ceasefire mission in the Middle East without once mentioning its object is a measure of its failure. Asked by a reporter at his final news briefing in Jerusalem Wednesday, April 17, what happened to the ceasefire, he said the word was not relevant.
Sent to calm the Middle East storm and let the Bush administration complete
its war plans against Iraq undisturbed, Powell leaves behind a furious
caldron. A multi-fronted war looms large,
while the threat of an oil embargo against the US and Israels friends
has expanded. Iran and Iraq hope to rope in Saudi Arabia and Venezuela too.
In Beirut, even the five-day lull in Hizballahs cross-border attacks
against northern Israel is not attributed to Powells efforts, but rather
as a gesture of goodwill in advance of prime minister Rafiq Hariris
White House interview with President George W. Bush Wednesday, April 17.
Powells final two-hour session with Yasser Arafat Wednesday in his besieged
headquarters in Ramallah left the Palestinian leader boiling over with rage
and threats. 'My situation,' he spat out to reporters, 'will be reflected
in the stability of the whole region!'
The US Secretary emerged from the confrontation tight-lipped.
By the last day of his trip, the serious erosion in Americas military
and diplomatic clout in the region could not be concealed. The US secretarys
tour took him to Morocco, where he met King Mohamed VI as well as the vacationing
Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah; to Damascus, for talks with President Bashar
Assad; to Beirut, for a meeting with Haririi; and to Ramallah, to see Yasser
Arafat. He cautioned them all, excepting Abdullah: If you keep going as you
are and disregard American wishes especially its demands to restrain
terrorism - prepare for a full-fledged showdown with Washington.
However, the US secretarys diplomatic efforts to come up with bridging
formulae between US and Arab positions not to speak of common US-Palestinian
ground got nowhere.
Egyptian ruler Hosni Mubarak went so far as to call off his meeting with Powell
on his way home to Washington, announcing he was 'indisposed'. Mubarak, like
other moderate Arab leaders, fears that a display of sympathy for American
positions could lead his regime into perilous waters.
In private conversations with Jordans King Abdullah and Israeli prime
minister Ariel Sharon, the US secretary made no bones about the
imminence of regional war clouds.
At his final news conference in Jerusalem Wednesday, shortly after his interview
with Arafat, Powell laid down the prerequisites for progress towards a comprehensive
settlement:
-- The Israelis must end settlement and occupation. Sharon, he said, had given
him a timeline of around a week for Israels military withdrawal from
re-occupied areas, excepting for Arafats compound in Ramallah and the
Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem. The Israeli prime minister said reservists
would be sent home next week;
-- The Palestinians must renounce terror and violence especially of
suicides, because they holding the peoples dreams of peace and statehood
hostage. This is an indispensable condition for progress and a strategic choice
Arafat must make;
-- The Arabs must transform Saudi Crown Prince Abdullahs peace initiative
to reality, as well as condemning and combating terrorism, including funding
and incitement;
-- The international community must help America persuade the Palestinians
and Arab leaders to renounce their support for terrorism.
In short, Powel translated the blunt Bush ultimatum to world leaders into
Middle East language, namely: If you are not with us in the battle against
global terror, you are against us. So if you sink further in that swamp, youre
on your own.
DEBKAfiles sources sum up the US secretarys efforts at his two
most time-consuming stops: Jerusalem and Ramallah
Israel:
Powell failed to convince Sharon to keep Israels responses to suicide
attacks low key. Israel, said the prime minister, would meet multi-casualty
suicide attacks with larger and more devastating military punishment than
even the Jenin operation. However, the US secretary acknowledged that Washington
had gained a better understanding of the link between Arafat, the launch of
his Intifada and the militant postures of Iraq and Iran. The need to cut that
link had led the Bush administration to its final decision, the first steps
of which were approached before Powell left the region, to wash its hands
of Arafat as Palestinian leader and to headhunt a replacement.
The significance of this decision transcends Palestinian national considerations
and the Israel-Palestinian conflict; it is a key brick in the plan to transform
national borders and relocate populaces that
the Bush administration aspires to achieve in the Middle East and Persian
Gulf, a plan we have referred to in previous reports.
Palestinians:
Arafat refused to hear of any action to restrain terrorist action against
Israel especially the suicide attacks. The moment Powell has gone,
therefore, the Palestinians will make every effort to overcome the severe
curtailment of their capabilities, imposed by Israels three-week military
operation against Palestinian terrorist strongholds on the West bank, and
unleash a fresh suicide offensive. As American reporters left his besieged
headquarters in Ramallah Wednesday, the Palestinian leader stopped them with
a diatribe: 'What do you Americans think? Do you think it is acceptable for
me not to be able to go out of this door? Dont you understand it will
reflect on the stability of the entire Middle East?'
The trouble for Arafat is that the Americans do understand the threat his
war and terror offensive pose for the Middle East. That is why they may have
asked Israel to ease his conditions, but not to end his isolation."