China May Pose Greater Threat To Taiwan Than Most People Think

Subject: FW: China Reform Monitor No. 537

Date: Wed, 7 Apr 2004 15:38:34 -0700

China Reform Monitor No. 537, April 7, 2004
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
http://www.afpc.org

Editor: Al Santoli
Associate Editors: Miki Scheidel, Lisa-Marie Shanks

WARNING SIGNS FOR TAIWAN: BEIJING SOLIDIFIES MILITARY AND POLITICAL TIES
WITH KEY OIL PRODUCERS, FRANCE AND ASIAN NEIGHBORS

Editor's note: Taiwan could be facing greater danger from Beijing than some
observers anticipate, based on the following factors: Stepped up activity by
Chinese military and political officials to forge alliances across Asia, and
to neutralize neighboring countries; increased trade and political ties with
oil producing countries, in tandem with a growing loss of U.S. prestige due
to the Iraq and Palestine crises; and instability in Taiwan following the
contentious election and growing resentment of mainland-born members of the
Kuomintang and the People’s First Party.

Another key factor is timing: China has invested much national prestige and
treasure in preparing to host the 2008 Olympics. A post-2005 invasion of
Taiwan could cause a partial international boycott of the games, much as
Russia faced after invading Afghanistan. On the other hand, because the US
is over-stretched militarily in the Middle East and fears a potential crisis
in Korea, a rapid conquest of Taiwan combined with China’s pivotal role in
an unstable international economy could cause short term penalties followed
by international acceptance of a fait accompli. Taiwan is especially
vulnerable to international neglect because it no longer dominates the
world's semi-conductor industry - which has been largely transferred to
China by mainland-born captains of Taiwan's industry.